LPL Research
Happy Two-Year B-Day Bull Market – Here’s to a Third! | Weekly Market Commentary | October 14, 2024
The October 13 rally that ended the bear market at a low of 3,577.03 began with the S&P 500 selling off in the morning only to rally dramatically higher into the market close. The CPI report earlier in the day showed headline inflation at 8.2% on a year-over-year basis, but Core CPI ─ not including food and fuel prices ─ beat the consensus estimate at 6.6%. The S&P 500 closed at 3,669.91 and the bull market had commenced.
Just When We Recalibrated, Another Shock Arrived | Weekly Market Commentary | October 7, 2024
Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell said last month’s decision to cut the fed funds target rate by a half percentage point was due to a “recalibrating” policy, as the Fed follows its dual mandate regarding inflation and growth.
Gold Rally Is No Flash in the Pan | Weekly Market Commentary | September 30, 2024
When it comes to investing, gold may be the antithesis of artificial intelligence (AI). The precious metal has acted as a store of value for thousands of years with zero technological innovation — gold is discovered, not developed. Gold is also a real tangible asset and can act as a potential hedge against inflation or a safe haven during times of crisis.
Policy Crosscurrents: Potential Market Impacts | Weekly Market Commentary | September 23, 2024
Of course, last week’s headliner was Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve (Fed) cutting rates by a half percent on Wednesday, September 18, the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic broke out in 2020. The Fed “pause” ended at 423 days and now stands as the second-longest on record, while the 26% gain for the S&P 500 during the pause (7/27/23–9/18/24) ranks first. Here we share some thoughts on the Fed’s move last week and some potential market implications of not only Fed policy but also fiscal policy post-election.
Election Implications on the Municipal Market | Weekly Market Commentary | September 16, 2024
While there are still several months until the election is decided, the expectation is that regardless of who ultimately becomes our 47th president, the biggest loser could be the fiscal deficit. Per the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), the U.S. government is expected to run sizable deficits over the next decade — to the tune of 5% – 7% of gross domestic product (GDP) each year. According to the CBO, the deficit increases significantly in relation to GDP over the next 30 years, reaching 8.5% of GDP in 2054.
LPL Blog
Outlook 2024: A Turning Point
In 2024, we believe markets will make a definitive turn to a more recognizable place. En route, the transition will be marked by meaningful shifts in a few key areas. Inflation is going down. The risk of a recession is bubbling up again as the effect of post-pandemic...
Outlook 2023: Finding Balance
Through all the challenges, newfound opportunities, and every high and low we’ve experienced during the last couple of years, it’s no surprise why we might be striving for more balance.