Weekly Market Commentary

This earnings season may be unpredictable and forgettable, but it may not be all bad. We offer key themes to watch.

2020 is an election year, and as we get closer to November, we expect this to replace COVID-19 and the recession at the top of investors’ minds.

Although the US economic recovery has picked up and we expect yields to rise in the second half of 2020, structural forces may help limit the size of the move.

Among developed markets, we maintain our preference for US equities over international, but the bout of strong performance for the MSCI EAFE Index…

Stock market valuations have gotten more expensive because earnings have fallen, which may bring volatility if the recovery disappoints.

The US economy almost certainly entered a recession in March 2020 as a result of the lockdowns and business closures to contain the COVID-19 pandemic…

The rally continued as the S&P 500 Index closed out May on the positive side. The disconnect between stocks and the economy generated widespread concern among some investors.

At the beginning of the first quarter corporate earnings reporting season, we noted the earnings bar probably wasn’t set low enough, given the abruptness of the shutdowns in March.

Stocks may have been due for a pullback after gains in late March through April and could potentially have further to fall.

The historically worst six months of the year have officially started, and combined with technical warnings, that suggests stocks may take a well-deserved break soon.