Inflation’s effects on the economy, monetary policy, and the financial markets are wide-ranging. Higher inflation can constrain economic growth, tighten financial conditions, drive interest rates higher and even restrain stock valuations — higher inflation dampens the present value of future earnings and, historically, correlates with lower stock valuations.
Corporate buybacks, arguably one of the less-discussed catalysts, likely provided an additional boost to the market’s quick recovery. In this week’s Weekly Market Commentary, we explore recent repurchase activity, including who is buying back stock, how much, and how buyback companies have historically performed.
On Wednesday, May 28, the U.S. Court of International Trade (CIT) essentially blocked the majority of President Trump’s tariffs. A three-judge panel issued summary judgment against the tariffs enacted under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), claiming they were unconstitutional and “exceed any authority granted by the President by IEEPA.”
First quarter reporting season was solid, but results didn’t offer much of a confidence boost in the outlook for the rest of the year.
In just a matter of hours last week, investors apparently decided that stocks were on sale, and it was time to buy. But nothing materially changed as consumers were still pessimistic about the future, firms were on the sidelines waiting to deploy capital amid tariff uncertainty, and the Federal Reserve (Fed) remained committed to their “Wait and See” stance.
Earnings continued to come in better-than feared, but “tariff uncertainty” continued to get flagged on most conference calls. The Federal Reserve (Fed) kept rates unchanged and stuck to its patient approach with monetary policy, despite notable downgrades to economic growth estimates and rising recession probabilities since their last meeting.
The municipal bond market faced significant volatility in April, driven by spillovers from a turbulent Treasury market. Treasury yields were pressured higher by rising inflation expectations; the Federal Reserve’s cautious policy stance, reduced foreign demand; hedge fund deleveraging, portfolio shifts toward cash, and structural illiquidity.
The softer tone toward China from the White House, President Trump’s pledge not to fire Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome (Jay) Powell, and renewed optimism about Fed rate cuts all helped drive a strong market rebound last week.
This week was one of the most volatile weeks in the history of the stock market. That excludes the historic two-day decline on Thursday and Friday the week before (April 3–4). The S&P 500 dropped 1.6% on Tuesday, April 8, surged 9.5% on Wednesday, April 9 (the third biggest up day since 1950), fell 3.5% on Thursday, April 10, and jumped 1.8% on Friday, April 11. The S&P 500 ended up nearly 6% for the week.
Markets got quite a surprise from the Trump administration last week in the form of tariffs above even the most aggressive forecasts, increasing the risks to economic growth and corporate profits.